Read the entire article here.
In 2007, the crystal balls started saying Mahoney couldn’t possibly win re-election in 2008.
So are Mahoney’s opponents. In an interview with CQ Politics, state Rep. Gayle Harrell, R-Stuart, said Mahoney’s win was a fluke, and he was simply “the luckiest guy around.” But she also cautioned Republicans against assuming the seat will be easy to recapture.
“It’s a different day,” Harrell said. “We have a Democrat-controlled Congress and the Democrat Party is putting huge resources into this. So we can’t underestimate how difficult it will be to take it back.”
In the 16th district, Republicans outnumber Democrats 202,000 to 170,000. But there are also 103,000 who claim to be independents, or have no party affiliation. Those swing voters are the key to any congressional election.
The Rothenberg Political Report, an independent newsletter that follows U.S. House and Senate contests, rates Florida’s District 16 as “a pure toss-up.”
The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan, online analysis of electoral politics, on Dec. 16 rated Florida’s 16th District as leaning Democratic.
A third political analyst, University of Virginia political science Prof. Larry Sabato, calls Mahoney “potentially vulnerable” because he drew 50.97 percent of the two-party vote in 2006.
“The political pendulum most likely won’t be as far to the left in 2008 as it was (in 2006), and as a result, the first-term Democrats … start the cycle with much bigger targets on their back,” Sabato wrote.
December 27th, 2007
USA today likes our chances to win the general election. Click here for their full commentary.
Florida
In 2000, Florida played a crucial and controversial role in determining the next president. A year before the 2008 presidential elections, the state seems to be cementing that role again. After state Democrats bucked their national party by setting their primary a week earlier than mandated, the Democratic National Committee took away the state’s primary delegates. In response, state Democrats sued the DNC. In the general election, Florida is again the largest potential swing state.
Republicans are targeting freshman Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney, who in 2006 narrowly won a historically GOP seat after Rep. Mark Foley was revealed to have sent lurid messages to congressional pages and resigned. State Rep. Gayle Harrell is among those seeking the nomination.
2004 results: President Bush won the state’s 27 electoral votes with 52% of the vote.
November 14th, 2007
